Among those identifying as Catholic, Harris leads Trump, but there is more to the story

 

Harris leads Trump among Catholic voters, per EWTN News/RealClear poll

Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump. | Credit: MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images; KAMIL KRZACZYNSKI/AFP via Getty Images

By Matthew Bunson

Washington, D.C. Newsroom, Sep 5, 2024 / 11:40 am

Vice President Kamala Harris leads among Catholic voters over former president Donald Trump, according to the findings of a new EWTN News/RealClear Opinion Research survey two months away from the presidential election.

The poll, conducted from Aug. 28-30, surveyed 1,000 Catholics and has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. 

Catholic voters, like most of the electorate, consider the economy by far the most pressing issue facing the country and oppose transgender surgeries for minors and transgender males competing in women’s sports. They are divided on the question of who should set policy on abortion, U.S. support for Ukraine, and Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza. The findings also reveal a significant gender gap among Catholic voters, while Trump is currently receiving support from 30% of Catholic Latinos.

According to the findings, 50% of Catholic voters currently support Harris for president while 43% support Trump and 6% are undecided. Harris is also ahead of Trump among Catholic Latino voters, leading the former president 60% to 30% overall but with 9% still undecided. This is important given the growing size and influence of Latinos in American Catholicism.

The vice president also leads Trump among Catholic African American voters 82% to 12% and Catholic Asian voters 58% to 35%. Trump carries non-Hispanic white Catholic voters by a margin of 52% to 42%. 

Similarly, Harris leads the former president in every age group, with her biggest leads among Catholic voters aged 30-39 and 40-49. Interestingly, her smallest margin is among the 18- to 29-year-olds, Gen-Z Catholic voters (many of whom will be voting for the first time in 2024), where she holds a statistically insignificant lead of 44% to 43%.

Among Catholic voters, she has also managed so far to avoid damage from President Joe Biden’s low job approval rating, currently at 49% disapproval with 41% approval, while 10% are neutral.

Especially notable is the gender gap that has emerged among Catholic voters. Female Catholic voters support Harris over Trump 56% to 37%, while male Catholic voters favor Trump 49% to 43%.

Similarly, on the generic ballot for control of Congress, 49% of Catholics support the Democrat candidate while 41% support the Republican candidate. Female Catholic voters, meanwhile, favor the Democrat candidate 54% to 35% while male Catholic voters support the generic Republican 48% to 43%. 

The gender gap exists across many other issues. The economy is considered by far the most pressing issue of the election by both men and women — 51% overall, 54% female and 48% male. But the second most important issue for Catholic women voters is abortion at almost 13% (compared with 6% for Catholic male voters). Catholic male voters rank border security and immigration as second most important at 17% (compared with 9.5% for Catholic female voters). Among all Catholic voters, after the economy, the next most important issues are border security and immigration at 13% and abortion at 10%.

When asked who should be responsible for setting abortion policy: state legislatures, the federal government, or neither, 45% of female Catholic voters say neither, compared with 28% of male Catholics. Overall, Catholics in the era after the fall of Roe v. Wade are divided on the question — a plurality of voters (38%) think neither the state legislature nor the federal government should be responsible for setting abortion policy, 34% think state legislatures should be responsible, and 29% say the federal government should be responsible.

Divided on key issues

Similar divides among Catholic voters are visible when it comes to some of the most important foreign policy questions. When asked how Israel is carrying out its response to Hamas’ savage Oct. 7, 2023, attack, 41% consider it somewhat or completely acceptable, while 39% consider it somewhat or completely unacceptable. Twenty percent are not sure. 

As for the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, 37% of Catholic voters think the U.S. is providing too much support to Ukraine, 36% think it is giving about the right amount of support to Ukraine, and 28% say the U.S. is not providing enough support to Ukraine, a plurality of over two-thirds of Catholic voters favoring U.S. support for Ukraine. 

Moving on to China, only 6% think China poses no threat, and close to half would call China a significant or severe threat. 

Areas of broader agreement do extend to some of the most controversial cultural issues. Half (50%) of Catholic voters oppose puberty blockers/cross-sex hormone treatment or surgical procedures for minors, while 14% support both procedures, 7% support surgical procedures, and 7% support puberty blockers. 

A majority of Catholic voters (67%) also think athletes who were born male but now identify as girls or women should not be able to compete in women’s sports and athletics, while 18% say they should; 15% are unsure. Fifty-six percent of Catholic voters favor the death penalty for a person convicted of murder, while 23% oppose it, and 21% are unsure.

Mass attendance and Catholic voters

The poll also found that when it comes to Mass attendance, 12% of American Catholics attend Mass daily or more than once a week, 31% once a week, 16% once or twice a month, 32% a few times a year, and 9% once a year. Harris leads among every category of Mass-attending Catholics save for daily Mass attendees who support Trump 55% to 30%. 

Unlike the findings in previous polling of Catholics, in this unusual election at least, regular Mass attendance or adherence to Church teaching may no longer be an indication that the voters will vote for the Republican presidential candidate.

In addition, this is the most volatile presidential election in modern American political history, and this first poll was conducted in the immediate aftermath of the Democratic National Convention. It also comes well before the scheduled first presidential debate on Sept. 10, and other events between now and Nov. 5 may have a substantial impact on the race, such as another international crisis or the felony sentencing hearing for Trump in a New York courtroom on Sept. 18. 

National polls are finding the race extraordinarily tight with the candidates effectively tied both nationally and in every battleground state. In that environment, each vote is needed, and Catholic voters will have a key role to play in deciding the next occupant of the White House. EWTN News and RealClear Opinion Research will continue to track Catholic voter attitudes all the way to Election Day.